The growing importance of rail freight
Projections from MDS Transmodal suggest that rail’s share of freight tonne km will increase from 12.6 per cent (in 2006) to 20.7 per cent by 2030. Total rail freight volumes are projected to reach 198 million tonnes by 2030 – an increase of 60 per cent on 2006 levels.
These forecasts are based on:
- the Government’s interim ports white paper (2007) forecasts an almost three-fold increase in the number of deep sea intermodal containers coming into GB between 2005 and 2030
- Current active plans by developers to build nine million square metres of warehousing on rail linked distribution parks (approximately 30 per cent of all warehouse construction to 2030)
Changes in composition of rail freight
- A reduction in the use of coal for electricity generation is likely to lead to a 10 million tonne reduction in rail freight volumes between 2006 and 2030. However, this is more than offset by the predicted demand growth from other sectors
- Volumes of non bulk domestic and intermodal rail freight volumes (ie consumer goods moved by rail) are anticipated to see a 14-fold and four-fold increase (respectively) between 2006 and 2030
- The construction sector will also make more use of rail; a 42 per cent increase in freight volume is predicted between 2006 and 2030
- The following maps show the number of freight trains using key routes each day. Demand for services (especially in the South East of England and on the East and West Coast Main Lines) is predicated to rise substantially over the next 25 years
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